Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Just For Fun ... Or Can One Do Some Value Add Analysis To This

First of all, its for those who can download the app, which is a pre-filtering thing already. We can surmise that those using the app would be largely urbanites, which is like "preaching to the converted". Nonetheless, it is a gratifying summary of the mood of the nation.

We can add value to the it by gauging how rural will each state voters be. If you are talking about Selangor, KL, Penang ... the rural votes will be minimal. Hence KL 60-40, Penang 76-24 and Selangor 74-26 are shoo-ins already for Pakatan. Although we still have to be wary of phantom voters, whom will be largely in Selangor and KL. Nonetheless, the margins are astounding, which is to say, the three states should go to Pakatan provided we go out to vote in numbers to nullify the hantus.

The next category are the in betweens, not so rural and have a decent urbanite feel to it, possibly an average iPhone state: Perak, Johor, Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and Labuan. Perak 71-29, Johor 67-33, Melaka 65-35, Negeri Sembilan 70-30 and Labuan 55-45. I think Labuan is too close, leave that aside. Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and Johor, the margin indicates a substantive swing, even factoring in rural votes, Perak will go back to Pakatan and Johor is a big game changer and may go to Pakatan as well. As Bn seems to be paying little attention to Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, Pakatan should very well win both these states too.

Putrajaya 67-33, I would not read much into this as I believe iPhone users from Putrajaya could be careful in not wanting their votes be known, thus those voting Pakatan via the app may be just die hard opposition members. Leave that aside.

Those with large rural component, the ones which are still BN should be Sarawak PR 59-BN41. Pahang PR61-BN39 and Perlis PR58-BN42 should go to BN as well. Kedah 65-35, is too close to call I believe.

Sabah 60-40, thats just urbanites, and we do expect some major swings from the rural folks as well owing to happenings over the past 6 months alone, should see some Parliament seats being lost by BN. For that matter, Sarawak as well albeit to a lesser degree.

Kelantan looks safe for PAS 66-34 as rural will be PAS oriented. Terengganu 62-38 is too close to call.

So, are we looking at Selangor, KL, Perak, Penang, Johor, Negeri Sembilan, Melaka, Kelantan at least to Pakatan?  Maybes include Kedah and Terengganu.