Thursday, April 11, 2013

All Time High, So How?

Do the foreign funds know something the local funds and private investors do not? The buying was sustained but the broader market was largely devoid of 'action'. The index breezed past 1700 without much of an obstacle.

All this presents more questions than confidence to most investors. Seriously, do they know something? If the foreign funds seriously thought that BN would be returned to power, then all I can say is do they consider the power shift in 2008 a one-off? Every single Malaysian I know knows that this is going to be a closely fought election. Hence, if they think the winds of change is neutered, then they are terribly wrong and do not have their ears to the ground.

All they need is to survey the mood as compared to 2008, all Malaysians know its going to be close. Even BN themselves are asking questions like who is going to be PM SHOULD Pakatan wins. I mean, never in the tawarikh of Malaysia has BN ever asked that question, or needed to. 

Or are they "assuming" that BN have enough "tricks" and "ways" to ensure a solid victory? What a presumptuous position to take.

Or the other side of the coin, they don't care even if Pakatan wins. Maybe ... because all things considered, the outlook for the economy and markets would be much better with Pakatan over the long term albeit with some weakness during the passover (Jewish word pun unintended ... or is it). 

Or they think Pakatan will win and the longer term looks great and is buying ahead of the curve. I am scratching my head because there is also a great likelihood in a scenario where there would be a lot of uncertainty - a hung parliament. Most think that there is a high possibility of that, and surely no matter what "basis the funds are buying on", surely a hung parliament would not be a pleasant result.

Yes, Malaysian market has a lot of catching up to do with the rest of the markets as we have been dithering when the rest have been charging over the first few months of the year. Surely, all things considered, its hard to be fully invested.

I cannot fathom how they could not care about the outcome, or can be sure of the outcome, one way or the other BECAUSE we are not Thailand, we do not change our government regularly!!! So, based on that alone, how can anyone be gung-ho over potential scenario where we have never had before (i.e. opposition taking over or a hung parliament)???!!!

Thus comes another tired explanation in that maybe the foreign funds are not so foreign? You fill in the blanks. There is another possible explanation in that it is to raise funds for elections - this sounds plausible, but how? Well, say I buy 10m shares in ABC, you as owner has to move it 20% up, so I cash out, ta-dah, funds raised - how believable is that, ... up to you lah.

I have been referencing a few times about Occam's Razor ... when there are many possible explanations over a mind blowing event/situation/problem ... chances are the simplest and most straight forward explanation is the probable answer. Only trouble is, this time even Occam's Razor is no help ... I can't even think of the most straight forward or simple explanation in this instance.

The more you know, the more you do not know. The only thing I am certain of about this posting is that Angelababy Yang Wing is a very beautiful lady.

p/s ... but seriously folks, I think I know the answer, and its one of the many suggestions above, see if you spot it as well .... I am taking the Fifth ...

p/p/s the Fifth Amendment: the right not to incriminate oneself