Monday, January 21, 2013

UMA On Bursa

This was a really funny quip, somebody suggested that an UMA should be issued to the Bursa for yesterday's market weakness. Well, truth be told, the market had its biggest single day drop since October 2011, plus it was unusual market activity, and thirdly nobody can really say for sure why.

Sure there is speculation about the reasons, but its pretty much like a deserving UMA to me. If you were to ask Bursa, they'd probably reply: "We are not aware of any unusual or material developments".

So, UMA it is to Bursa. You fall some more, we will issue a second UMA or designate all stocks ok.

Seriously, its about elections. Tell us something we don't know. It has to be held soon. How far will it go down to prior to election day. I think its more likely to be closer to 1500 than 1550. Thats just my view.

If opposition wins, we may see a knee jerk quick sell down to 1450 to be followed by a swift rebound provided the transition of power is smooth. If not, we could be in for more uncertainty and downside.

Its all necessary as in birthing pains, but it will all turn out well ...

Assuming the opposition wins, and power transition was smooth, I believe funds will flow back almost instantaneously within weeks. It is not as dire or nasty as some make it out to be. All I am worried about is the transition of power process be smooth.

A cleaner government, better management of resources, more transparency, less leakages ... how not to attract more funds? It will not be perfect, they will make mistakes, there will even be cases of corruption and mismanagement, but I think they will be a lot fewer and lesser in quantum. How not to have a vibrant post election market?