Are We Closer To The Cliff?
Is it a repeat of 1987?
I have problem believing and following Analogs but I seriously do not like the market price action. In any case I am looking for a market correction of 15%-20% and my target date to short was around Mid-November. But what if the Christmas has really come early? I will see the price action overnight and take a call tomorrow about when to go short. My cycles are up for few more days but the market price action does not support that and when the short term cycle tops in few days, maybe we will see the waterfall we are waiting for.
Today both VIX and Indices were down. May be we will see bit of bounce tomorrow. Today US$ was up marginally while gold silver and crude was up substantially. Nat.Gas is moving in a range and its cycle is close to a bottom. I have started scaling in Nat.Gas and I expect higher prices going forward. I think as of now it is a safer bet.
By the way, does anyone of you remember my call for Apple at $500? At that time it sounded ridiculous. But now it seems Apple may go down below $500. And Galaxy S3 is the most popular Smartphone in the world. Some are calling for a bounce and maybe we will get a bounce but it is too early for bottom fishing. Like trying to catch a falling knife. I would stay away from Apple till we have a definitive bottom which we do not have today. I just do not understand who those folks are selling Apple at $ 550 when they did not sell it at $ 700.
Coming back to market, gold and silver are showing some strength and although I do not think we will see the bounce from here, gold and gold miners may be good for a short trade. The strength in gold is another reason I have difficulty in accepting that there is panic in the market.
Apart from Natural Gas, there is another trade of the decade which I want to draw your attention. That is 3D printers and 3D printing technology. In the next 10 years, this technology will change the business world like PC and internet did 10-15 years back. Two stocks, SSYS and DDD are up even in this down market and may be something we should keep an eye on to add to the portfolio by the end of the year.
Today reader PM Hana sent a huge donation and my special thanks to him. My sincere thanks to all of you for donating to the blog. I cannot thank you enough for all your help and support.
Thanks for sharing my thoughts and reading the blog. Trade safe guys.