Monday, March 4, 2013

Its A Shifting Tide, Its A Breaking Wave, ... Nooo... Its A Tsunami (Again)

The last University of Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) polls conducted between Dec. 26 and Jan. 11 reinforce the forecast that the outcome of the 13GE is too close to call, as the difference between those who believe BN can beat PR in the 13GE has been decimated:
25% in December 2011 
5% in January 2013.

Respondents who believe that Pakatan Rakyat can take Putrajaya in the 13GE have steadily climbed from:
18% in December 2011 
21% in April 2012 
30% in Sept. 2012 
37% in Jan 2013.

In contrast, respondents who believe that Barisan Nasional can win the 13GE:
43% in Dec. 2011
49% in April 2012
44% in Sept. 2012
42% in Jan 2013.

Respondents undecided or unsure who could win the 13GE:
39% in Dec. 2011
30% in April 2012 
26% in Sept 2012 
21% in Jan 2013.

On this Umcedel scenario, all that is needed for PR to beat BN in the race to Putrajaya in the 13GE is to win over more than five per cent of the undecided or unsure respondents, which stands at 21% in January 2013.