Wednesday, October 31, 2012

After The Storm.

After the devastation, the markets gave its best shot in a difficult situation. So far it is following the path written. If you remember, we expected the indices to move up and down this week and make a messy bottom. So far SPX has corrected only about 5% from its top but the downturn has persisted for over 40 days now. This in itself is something of a rarity. I see close similarity between now and last April.

And my call for a test of the high is consistent with that topping pattern.  Already some positive divergences are appearing.  Tradersu has forwarded the following link.

However, it would be good to remember that this rebound is going to be short term in nature and unless we see 1480 taken out with conviction and SPX stays above that range for a while, I would consider that as a part of topping process.

For the near term, I would like to share a chart of Presidential Election cycle sent by Tom McClellan.

Again, this chart fits perfectly with my cycle and call. I think Apple is bottoming short term and will test the 50 DMA in the coming days. Gold and silver made some progress from the base. All in all, I am of the opinion that a base of some sort is being built for the next stage of the rally. But for that, we may have to wait till next week.

I hope all you readers are safe and secure. Our good wishes to those who have been badly affected by this storm. At least it gave us respite from the 24 hour politics.

Thanks for sharing my thoughts. Hope you are in cash and cushy and ready for the opportunities ahead of us.