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What do we know about climate?

Sad to say this is only my second post of September. I have been busy with other things... extensive travel.... re-roofing a barn... the usual. Anyway, just a couple of links I'd like to mention in connection to my most recent Bloomberg column, which appeared yesterday.

The point of my column was to emphasize just how complex the science of the Earth's climate really is. I was struck by two recent articles in Nature, both of which are worth reading. One, an excellent feature by Nicola Jones, describes a few of the counter-intuitive effects of climate, for example, how the sea can rise (or fall) in different ways in different places. Water doesn't just spread out, as you might intuitively think. It has mass, and inertia, gets blown by winds, etc., and can pile up. A short taste:

When Jeff Freymueller, a geophysicist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, visited Alaska's Graves Harbor more than a decade ago, his marine charts showed three isolated little islands; what he saw, instead, were three grassy peninsulas connected to the mainland. That was because water levels in some parts of Alaska are dropping — by up to 3 centimetres per year.

The ground there is lifting upwards, in a slow-motion rebound that has been going on for 10,000 years, since the glacial ice sheet that once weighed down the continent receded at the end of the last ice age. Gravitational influences on the oceans are also at work: as local glaciers recede and the Greenland ice sheet melts, their gravitational pull is subtly reduced, allowing more ocean water to slop southwards.

Trends in local sea level can differ strongly from the global average, which is increasing by around 3.2 millimetres per year. “Some places, sea-level rise is ten times faster than the average,” says Jerry Mitrovica, a geophysicist at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

One side of this equation is the movement of the land. Canada's Hudson Bay, for example, was once buried under more than 3 kilometres of ice, and the release from that load is now causing the land to rise at about 1 centimetre per year. As that part of North America moves upwards, land to the south is being levered down: the US east coast is dropping by millimetres per year.

Subsidence can cause some areas to sink much faster. Compaction of river sediments and hollowing out of the earth by groundwater extraction, for example, are causing parts of China's Yellow River delta to sink at up to 25 centimetres per year⁴.

Adding to the complexity, the oceans do not rise evenly all over the world as water is poured in. Air pressure, winds and currents can shove water in a given ocean to one side: since 1950, for example, a 1,000-kilometre stretch of the US Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina has seen the sea rise at 3–4 times the global average rate⁵. In large part, this is because the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic current, which normally push waters away from that coast, have been weakening, allowing water to slop back onto US shores.

Finally, waters near big chunks of land and ice are literally pulled up onto shores by gravity. As ice sheets melt, the gravitational field weakens and alters the sea level. If Greenland melted enough to raise global seas by an average of 1 metre, for example, the gravitational effect would lower water levels near Greenland by 2.5 metres and raise them by as much as 1.3 metres far away.

Scientists and engineers are only just starting to wrangle all these effects into local projections. In June, the New York City Panel on Climate Change updated its estimates of sea-level rise by including the local effects of gravitational shifts⁶. Panel members concluded that they expect to see 30–60 centimetres of rise by 2050. Finding and combining the right data sets took about six months; the exercise should pave the way for other cities to do the same, says Cynthia Rosenzweig, a climate-impact researcher at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City. “We really are working to get the best science.”

Equally interesting and informative, in a very different way, is a commentary piece in the same issue by K. John Holmes. This looks at the history of the use and management of the arid lands in the central and western US. Sounds a little boring, but Holmes argues that the process then was just as messy, just as fraught with hysteria and massive disinformation, as is the current debate over climate change and what to do about it:

When nineteenth-century explorer William Gilpin travelled across the Great Plains, the expanse that covers much of the central and western United States, he marvelled at the “great pastoral region”, the dry climate of which was “favorable to health, longevity, intellectual and physical development”¹. Great cities could be built there, he imagined, taking advantage of the wealth of local resources — rivers, forests and even gold.

Geologist John Wesley Powell saw things differently. Moving from the humid east to the arid west would affect agricultural practices, occupations, social interactions and political customs, he contended^{2, 3}. Dry-land agriculture could not support a large population; any towns built in the west would need appropriate designs, irrigation and resource management. A controversy erupted.

The ensuing debates about how the arid lands should be settled hold lessons for us today on adapting to a changing climate. At their heart was a development plan for the region that Powell published in 1878 (ref. 2). It called for detailed scientific and engineering surveys, and analysis to inform land-use plans and laws. Although it addressed a spatial change in conditions caused by westward population expansion, Powell's coupling of physical and human dimensions was a forerunner to the assessment approach used today by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Powell's plan was never implemented in its entirety, but it began an era in which large-scale environmental and natural-resources assessments became central to the policy process in the United States⁴. Stalled by misinformation, political controversy and recessions, legislation for allocating resources in the arid lands took decades to enact. Then, as now, the assessments and their validity became part of the debate. Eventually, extreme weather, including long droughts, pushed policy-makers to act.

Read the whole thing here. 

Sona Petroleum May Announce QA Soon

It would be a triumph if Sona can announce a QA before CLIQ. UOB-KayHian seems to have gotten a scoop here. The said asset is already near production, which means less risk but also less super normal profit, but probably profitable anyway. This, if true, should perk up trading interest in Sona again.

UOB-KayHian - Sona Petroleum (SONA MK) which was listed back in end-July, would likely be announcing the acquisition of some qualifying assets (QA) soon. According to channel check, the company is looking at some of the O&G assets in SGX-listed RH Petrogas, which currently owned a full spectrum (i.e. from exploration to production) assets that are located in China, Indonesia and Malaysia. In line with Datuk Seri Hadian's guidance during the IPO launch, SONA would be keen to first buy up some producing assets which have steady cash flow to fund future acquisition of development and exploration blocks - which thus makes RH Petrogas 's assets do look appealing to SONA. 

Not surprisingly, RH Petrogas would want to rope in a strategic partner given that sizeable capital would be required for the on going development for the Fuyu-1 block as well as continuous development  and exploration drilling for the two matured basins i.e. Basin and Island PSC. With the projected capex of around US$30m to US$40m on the horizon, RH Petrogas would likely be doing few more cash call to fund the above developments, in our view. 

Portfolio of RH Petrogas assets (yellow one is what SONA is keen on, in our view): 



Valuations for RH Petrogas (NOT SONA OK!!): 

 


For further detail on the assets, please refer to the appendix. 

Assuming a 50% farm out from RH Petrogas on the above assets, the above acquisition (ex-block SK331) would easily cost SONA around US$79m (RM253m).We believe SONA would have no issues in funding the acquisition given the RM550m it sits on post IPO fund raising.  Separately, it can't be ascertain at this juncture how much reserves is in Block SK331 given that RH Petrogas has just completed one round of seismic data on the onshore block. 

 

The acquisition if materialize would be a positive catalyst to share price performance over the near term given that portfolio comprises of both 2P (Basin PSC in Indonesia)-cash flow generative as well as 2C (Fuyu-1 in China) - a development block on the verge of production. 

Risk to our view: 

1) There is a possibility fo SONA overpaying for the acquisitions in order to meet the timeline guided to the investment community given that crude oil price is at the top end. Management team would have to stay disciplined and evaluate risk return equation carefully in order to maximise returns to shareholders. 

2) While we note is less riskier to acquire producing assets, the value creation is typically lower for producing assets. 

3) On going capex would be extensive for the both the 2P (to maintain production rate) and 2C fields (to find new reserves) and a point to note is RH Petrogas is guiding around US$30m to US$40m for the current portfolio of assets they owned. One would expect cash call ahead for SONA. 

Appendix: 

1) Details of Basin PSC: The Basin PSC (Kepala Burung PSC) covers an area of 872sqkm in onshore West Papua. The PSC was inked on Oct 1970 and renewed in 1996 for another 25 years. The field is a mature field with more than 40 years in production. Based on RHPetrol announcement, the field produced 6,400bpd in 2012, up from 5,000bpd given continous development drilling to mitigate field's production decline. 

Our valuation for the 2P blocks above (assuming US$6.00/brl) is largely derived from the transaction basis of RHP acquisiton of 60% and 33% interest in Basin PSC and Island PSC from Pearl Oil and Lundin Petroleum back in Sep 2010 which works out to a sum of US$74m for the 14.3m net reserves, valuing the transaction at US$5.35/brl. Note that crude oil price was around US$80/barrel back then versus US$100/barrel currently. 


2) Details of Fuyu 1 block. The 254.9sqkm Fuyu 1 block is located in the Southeastern part of the Songliao Basin in Jilin Province. Songliao basin is essentially a large intracratonic rift basin hosting one of China's largest onshore petroleum producing regions. In Songliao Basin, major oil fields include Daqing, Fuyu, and Xin Min. Point to note, CNPC operated the largest Daqing field, with 2bn tonnes of oil being lifted since operation in 1960. For Fuyu 1 block, CNPC originally explored the asset in 1984 and was held back due to reservoir complexity and needs of EOR techniques which is non-existent back then. 

RHP acquired the asset from Kingworld Resources (private vehicle of Tan Sri Tiong) in an RTO exercise back in 2009 for SG$110m. Our valuation on the 2C reserves is based on the current reserves of 35mmbls, which work out to be around US$2.5/barrels back then. 

The field which has been under development for the pass 3 years would finally commence production late this year given the expected approval from the Chinese Government soon. 

S&M Show Podcast

http://www.bfm.my/18584.html

http://www.bfm.my/podcast.html?category=&keyword=&program=15478&industry=&subject=&media=

MUSICAL CHAIRS IN BANKING &

MARKET NEWS 

"AS GOOD AS IT GETS"

Salvatore Dali, Malaysia Finance | Khoo Hsu Chuang, Julian Ng

25-Sep-13 10:54

Song Pick: A Canadian country, blues, alternative and folk outfit called Cowboy Junkies did a fantastic tribute to Elvis. They added a stanza before moving loving into Blue Moon's melody, the country twanging and lingering guitar is haunting. Blue Moon Revisited.

Murasaki Seminar In Ipoh This Saturday

Readers from Ipoh ....

If you have not come across Murasaki trading system, we will be in Ipoh for a seminar this coming Saturday. Subscribers of the system have done very well for themselves. For example (we have recorded back data of all highlighted stocks), last two weeks our picks include Greenocean (17 sen), Hibiscus-W (1.16), MMode (53.5 sen), Success (1.16), Hovid (27 sen), Green Packet (39.5 sen), Puncak (2.63), KPS (1.84) ....

Call 1800 88 3788 to reserve a seat (limited to 20 pax).

11am        Masterclass
11.30am   Advanced Masterclass (for subscribers only)

Hibiscus Petroleum

How far can Hibiscus go? I don't know but I do think at least a lot higher than RM2.00. You can try to do a breakdown of their joint ventures and their holdings (esp in Lime). The potential Listing of Lime in UK is already going to cover a large portion of their market cap. There is still a lot of naysayers until oil actually starts to flow. Well, everything has a calculated risk, the needle has moved substantially towards the highly likely to strike oil region. To me, Hibiscus is a

lot less risky NOW than when it was 12 months ago where there was more speculation and hope.

Back in July 2013, Hibiscus together with its Australian partner, 3D Oil, bought a drilling rig. That was to be the production platform (note: production) for the West Seahorse oilfield in Gippsland basin off the southeast coast of Australia. Regulatory approval should be a formality by year end and oil is expected to flow sometime in 2015. The amazing thing which some are beginning to realise is that the field has a best estimated contingent resource of 9.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil (note: its billions, not millions).

The other development is Hirex, which is a joint venture between Hibiscus' subsidiary Orient Hibiscus with Rex Southeast Asia. Rex has the critical proprietary technology which was why I was keen on Hibiscus from day one. Hirex will be covering the Asia Pacific region to pursue investments in exploration assets.

What is more significant was the emergence of Triax Ventures, which took up a 15% stake in Hirex for $10m or RM33m. At that valuation you can guess what is Hibiscus' stake worth. The willingness for Triax to get in assumes a substantive amount of due diligence and confidence in Rex's technology.

Hibiscus had on Sept 3 got the nod from Norway's Petroleum and Energy Ministry to approve the acquisition of four production licenses at the Norwegian Continental Shelf by Hibiscus Petroleum joint venture unit Lime Petroleum Norway AS from North Energy ASA.

Hibiscus' unit awards Oman drilling contract

Publish date: Mon, 19 Aug 11:09   Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd's jointly-controlled entity, Lime Petroleum Plc, through its subsidiary, Masirah Oil Ltd, has awarded a drilling rig contract to Aban 7 Pte Ltd. The company said the contract was for the execution of its drilling programme at Block 50 Oman concession, effective for a minimum period of 50 working days. The drilling work is expected to commence between mid-October and mid-November. Aban 7 Pte Ltd is an international drilling contractor that owns and operates a fleet of 18 drilling rigs. Under the contract, Masirah will procure the services of the Aban VII drilling rig, an independent leg cantilever jack-up rig to spud and drill a minimum of two exploration wells. "After an international tender exercise and careful evaluation of available rigs in the region, Aban VII was chosen due to certainty of its delivery schedule, strong past operating performance, crew competence and good health, safety and environment record alongside good regional support," Hibiscus Petroleum said in a statement. Hibiscus Petroleum managing director Dr Kenneth Pereira said the company stood a good chance of success and hope to reward its loyal shareholders. "The awarding of this contract represents a significant milestone for us," he said. The company said the prospects of Masirah North North #1 and Masirah North East #1 have been selected for drilling after indepth technical evaluation and verification using the proprietary Rex Virtual Drilling technology, in addition to the confirmations provided via conventional methodologies. "These prospects are internally estimated to have prospective resources of about 160 million barrels. "If the wells yield successful discoveries, production can potentially be expected to begin by the first half of next year through utilisation of an early production system," it added. Hibiscus Petroleum acquired 35 per cent stake in Lime Petroleum for US$55 million as its Qualifying Acquisition in April last year, and Lime Petroleum, in turn, has a 64 per cent participating interest in the Oman Block 50 concession, whilst Petroci Holding, the national oil company of Ivory Coast, has the remaining 36 per cent.

AUG 20, 2013 -  Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd has been short listed for the Round 2 of the Newfield asset bidding.

To recap, reports say in February 2013, Newfield, the fourth-largest oil producer in Malaysia announced that it was exploring the sale of its international assets, including offshore holdings in Malaysia and China.

It was said SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd was the only company that has publicly declared its interest in Newfield's assets, while Hibiscus Petroleum had been invited to put in its bid.

Newfield owns Malaysian assets through its two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Newfield Peninsula Malaysia Inc and Newfield Sarawak Malaysia Inc.

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Previous postings on Hibiscus:

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/search?q=hibiscus

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). I may already have positions in the stock mentioned above. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.